Asef Yılkı Lab - My Horizon

How is it possible that, at a time when global savings are declining, we are witnessing global stock markets, gold, and hashtag Bitcoin reaching unprecedented highs?

The largest buyers of hashtag gold and hashtag stocks are banks and financial institutions not ordinary individuals. As a result, the hashtag financial markets have expanded far beyond real economic fundamentals. Meanwhile, during this same period, hashtag oil prices have fallen an indicator of decreasing demand and a potential future decline in production.

This situation suggests the emergence of a hashtag gap, or hashtag bubble, between the financial markets and the real economy. Similar to events that occurred about a century ago, such as the hashtag Great Depression of 1929, this bubble could eventually burst, triggering a global monetary and financial reset.

The rapid rise in gold prices and global stock indices exceeds normal growth patterns. Under these conditions, holding hashtag gold and hashtag silver as a form of savings appears to be a rational strategy, since increases in the prices of these metals often reflect a decline in the value of national (fiat) currencies. 24.10.2025

Angola, one of the countries in Africa, decided to withdraw from the organization of oil-exporting countries (OPEC) following disagreements over the share of oil production. In the wake of this development, futures trading of Brent crude initially dropped by 2.4%, but later recovered some losses and rose above $80, fueled in part by tensions in the Red Sea. Approximately 12% of global maritime traffic, or 19 thousand ships, passes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal in this region. The ongoing instability and risks in this area further increase the likelihood of rising oil prices. However, prior to these events, OPEC Plus has been making efforts to reduce oil production in 2024, naturally leading to an increase in oil prices.

Economic negative effects of oil exports:

Exports of oil to exporting countries may have negative effects on the economy. A sudden inflow of foreign currency, if not properly managed, can lead to increased liquidity and subsequently inflation. Additionally, oil exports may contribute to the "Dutch disease," and this economic ailment can take the country out of an industrial state.

When oil prices are high, a significant amount of foreign currency enters the country, often leading to an increase in the national currency's value. This results in higher prices for domestically produced goods, reducing the country's competitiveness in foreign markets. Furthermore, imported goods become cheaper, negatively impacting the domestic production situation in the local market.

"Dutch disease" is an economic concept that describes the relationship between the excessive exploitation of natural resources and a recession in the industrial sector. In other words, an increase in income from natural resources can take the national economy out of an industrial state.

Night 2.12.2023

Merely the interest rate does not indicate the attractiveness of financial investment; what the investor receives is the real interest rate. The difference between the interest rate and inflation forms the real interest rate. In the table above, the United States has the highest interest rate, but with an inflation rate of 3.20, the actual interest rate is 2.30, which is lower than China's real interest rate. As you can see in the table, China, with negative inflation and the highest real interest rate among advanced countries, is the most attractive country for investment. Night 26.11.2023

Markets towards the end of 2023

The COVID-19 pandemic spread towards the end of 2019 and had a negative impact on many economies. Central banks around the world implemented expansionary monetary policies and kept interest rates at low levels. Expansionary monetary policies led to high levels of inflation. By 2022, many countries began to implement contractionary monetary policies to control inflation and gradually raised interest rates accordingly. The United States seemed to be approaching its inflation target. However, the continued rise in monthly inflation over the past 4 months has created uncertainty regarding interest rates. The Eurozone is trailing a bit behind in achieving its inflation target. Despite the rise in the value of the U.S. Dollar (USD) supported by the Fed's hawkish stance, a significant recovery in Gold prices still seems challenging. The Fed warned last week that persistently low inflation in the U.S. could lead to at least one more interest rate hike by the end of this year.

Global risk sentiment is taking a hit, particularly after the Federal Reserve indicated last week that it would keep interest rates high for a longer period, amid concerns about economic setbacks due to rising borrowing costs. This is reducing investor appetite for risky assets, especially with worries about worsening economic conditions in China and the property crisis in the world's second-largest economy. The Turkish market still appears to be going through a period of rising prices, but relative improvement is expected next year. In 2024, the value of the U.S. dollar may be reevaluated, and international investors may find gold more attractive as an alternative investment. Night 30.10.2023

A Walnut Tale

Last year, when a walnut fell on the road, I brought it to my workplace... Suddenly, I asked the people around me, "What do you think?"

I received different responses... For instance, a friend with an interest in art simply said, "Beautiful :)", another friend considered it from the perspective of right and wrong, while yet another pondered the maturity of the walnut...

With just one question, I encountered a multitude of perspectives... I once again realized that every individual is a world in themselves :)... Diverse perspectives make the world even more beautiful...

I keep the walnut as a keepsake... In my quest to discover different worlds :) . Night 06.09.2023

When I glance briefly at the world

Civilizations have emerged periodically in different geographical regions throughout history. As we move from West to East, the advancement of humanity has gained momentum. According to Alvin Toffler, humanity has lived through a thousand years of agricultural era, followed by three hundred years of experiencing the industrial revolution, and subsequently, though not explicitly named, stepping into the age of the information and technology revolution. During this period, while the cost of accessing information decreases, the levels of knowledge rise.

The roots of liberalism and capitalism were established in the West and gradually spread to Eastern countries. This process has led to the emergence of rapidly growing nations, such as the Tiger economies. However, the crises brought about by capitalism have shaken these nations, revealing their infrastructural deficiencies. Despite the reduction of global information asymmetry due to the advancement of knowledge and technology, infrastructure shortcomings remain the greatest barriers to development in many countries.

The rise of the virtual world has brought people closer in some ways while distancing them in others within their social relationships. Advanced nations, major economies like the G20 and G7, developing countries, international groupings like OPEC, OPEC+, BRICS, MIKTA, MENA, and vulnerable nations have exhibited tendencies to come together and collaborate. These alliances and intra-group conflicts have also been observed.

In the year 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the globe, and numerous countries found it challenging to achieve complete economic recovery. As the population ages in Western countries, the demand for labor has increased, resulting in an acceleration of migration from Eastern to Western nations. Following closely after this period, the Ukraine-Russia conflict erupted and continues. The digitization of art, the emergence of NFTs and cryptocurrencies, and novel domains have begun to capture attention. Simultaneously, the chip crisis and the political and commercial conflicts between China and the US have escalated, leading to an increase in the burden of taxation.

In the present day, the existence of extraterrestrial beings has been officially announced in the US Senate, heralding a new era and so on... Night 29.08.2023

Currency Valuation and Economic Growth

If we take a look at the year 2022, the most valuable currencies in the world belong to four Arab countries in the following order: 1. Kuwaiti Dinar, 2. Bahraini Dinar, 3. Omani Rial, 4. Jordanian Dinar. Additionally, the 5th rank is held by the British Pound, the 6th rank by the Cayman Islands Dollar, the 7th rank by the Euro, the 8th rank by the Swiss Franc, the 9th rank by the US Dollar, and the 10th rank by the Canadian Dollar.

Many contradictions in understanding the value of currency indicate the economic strength and power of that country. However, the energy-based economies of these countries have elevated the exchange rates of their national currencies. Nevertheless, none of these countries fall into the category of advanced nations in reality. This means that in terms of currency value, there is no meaningful and direct relationship with economic development and growth according to theory.

At times, countries view currency devaluation as a strategic policy for promoting economic growth and employment, considering the trends of economic fluctuations. Necessary measures and interventions are then taken to facilitate this process. Through the reduction of national currency value, the prices of goods and services produced become more affordable for international buyers, leading to an increase in exports for the country. This sets the engine of production in motion and generates more employment opportunities. However, this is not always advantageous for a healthy economy, as decreased purchasing power can lead to a stagnation in societal levels of education, healthcare, and more.

Economic growth aligns with the concept of development, and a society will truly grow and develop when, alongside statistical growth, the quality of living standards is improved... Night 01.05.2023